Helix · HFCN · this cycle, not last year
Just how close are the major hurricane forecast models to being correct?
NHC’s cone is last year’s typical miss — the same size whether the models agree or split. Helix shows the 50-member ECMWF swarm for this cycle. The track is still there, and we still score it against the official forecast. The opening is the width, not the line.
Experimental. Helix is not an official forecast. Do not use it for any safety, evacuation, or marine decision. Official information:
hurricane.noaa.gov.
Optional: Call the Track · briefing · whitepaper
1 · Official coneLast year’s typical miss. Same radius on every storm in the basin, whether the models agree or split.
2 · Cyan ellipseThis run’s ECMWF 1σ (~68% of members). Not the same probability as the official 2/3 cone.
3 · The lineA separate bet. A tight swarm is not a claim that Helix’s center beats NHC.